Wednesday, July 31, 2013
The Future of Compute-DreamTime and The End of Counting
As we reach the conclusion of Moore's law and our mechanical abilities to physically shrink the electronic aspects of our consoles, we are approaching a quandary. The advances of miniaturizing CPU's and their associated chip-sets are now at an inflection point.
The technologies that have allowed manufacturers to produce 22nm processors and their connected hardware arrangements have now most nearly reached their limits. We have done it. There is not a lot more work to be done here.The point of diminishing returns is now immediately on the horizon. The remarkable advances that we have here-to-for accomplished are at present nearing our present abilities to go much further.
What a short, strange trip it has been. From the IBM mainframes of the 1960's to the ubiquity of cell-phones, lap-tops, RFID's, and the host of other incredible devices we have made mind blowing advances and all in a relatively short fifty years.
The next fifty years will not be one of shrinking hardware. We are already there for the most part. The next fifty years will require a host of new models in both soft wares and the nature of human/machine interaction.
Although the console and input methods used today will be around in present forms for a considerable time to come...we are already experimenting with alternative forms of input and interaction. Natural user interface, touch, voice and facial recognition are each and all on the market and seeing ready adoption.
Imagine a "machine" that could carry on a basic conversation...not one of instructions and then compute actions that produce a given result...but rather a passing the time real conversation.
Imagine a compute environment that is everywhere. In your watch...your television, your car, your office, your home, and in all public places...tracking and monitoring your every breath...your every stride...keeping and monitoring a veritable life-log. "John...I see your body temperature and breathing rate indicate that you are now having a low blood-suger event...will you eat something... please..?.you will find your functioning improve within a half an hour." "Jane, today's forecast is rather pleasant...your blue summer skirt would look smart with your favorite earrings and that pinkish belt that you bought last week...and I see that Jill is wearing the same shoes you have for today...maybe you would wish to wear the other pair..?"
These notions are not the least bit far-fetched.
As we advance, brain research and neurological science will be a real boon to the software and processing environments. It is a fact that that the human can and will recognise and understand a clock-face faster than a string of numbers. To the brain a symbol is more effective than a literal representation.The end of counting may be the beginning of the future.
Much of today's bog was inspired by a paper, 'Disruptive Possibilities' by Jeffery Needham
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